Sentrana Blog » Blog Archive » Quantitative Intuition II: The Bayesian Brain’s Achilles Heel

We humans make estimations and decisions based on likelihood and prior knowledge, an observation that has given rise to the notion of the "Bayesian brain". But the elegance of our Bayesian reasoning is tripped up by our tendency to use heuristics to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty, leading to systematic, predictable errors. Understanding and dealing with this mental...